Donald Trump and his surrogates
have suggested that they would considergiving Vladimir
Putin a multibillion-dollar gift by lifting some of Washington’s onerous
sanctions on Russia. And the incoming president’s pick for secretary of state,
Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson, has ties to Putin and has pannedsanctions
against Moscow in the past. All of which raises a question: Could Trump
actually lift sanctions on Russia, giving the country’s weak economy a
much-needed lift and setting the stage for a far closer relationship with
Putin?
The short answer is that it
depends on which sanctions Trump wants to lift. The US has different types of
measures in place against Moscow, each motivated by a different kind of Russian
misbehavior. Trump could definitely remove some of them on his own, but giving
Russia a complete free pass would require persuading Congress that Putin had
changed his stripes. That would be a tough sell given that many of Trump’s
fellow Republicans believe the Russian leader is a foe of the US and is acting
more ruthlessly than ever before. “Vladimir Putin is a thug, a bully and a
murderer, and anybody else who describes him as anything else is lying,"
Sen. John McCain said during comments in December describing
Tillerson’s nomination as a “matter of concern.” Trump could give
Putin a helping hand, but many in the GOP would almost certainly try to block
the new president from letting him off the hook entirely.
The US has a lot of sanctions
on Russia because Russia has done a lot of things the US dislikes
When Trump moves into the Oval
Office on January 20, he’ll have three main types of Russia sanctions at his
disposal. The first relates to Moscow’s sale of weapons to states that
Washington wants to isolate in the global arena, such as North Korea; the second
to the Kremlin’s human rights violations; and the third to Putin’s backing of
separatists in east Ukraine and annexation of Crimea. The sanctions are all
administered by the executive branch, but Trump’s power to do away with them
varies. The measures put in place because of Russia’s weapons sales and human
rights misdeeds were passed by Congress, which means Congress is also needed to
overturn them.
But that’s not the case with the
sanctions tied to Moscow’s adventurism in Ukraine. Those ones — which impose
crippling penalties on Russia’s banks and oil companies — were put in place
through executive orders by President Obama and can be revoked with a stroke of
the pen by Trump. Politically, though, eliminating them would be significantly
harder.
Lawmakers from both parties see
Putin as an autocrat responsible for ensuring that Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad retains power and blocking numerous US attempts to find a diplomatic
solution to Syria’s brutal civil war. They also worry about the prospect of the
Russian president invading one of Eastern Europe’s NATO members and daring
Washington and its allies to respond. And the CIA’s and FBI’s assessments that
Putin deliberately sought to help Trump win the presidency have prompted
growing calls for formal congressional probes into Russia’s espionage in the US
and interference in the 2016 elections.
Some Russia experts believe that
Trump may still try to drop the Ukraine-related measures, but Congress could
end up pushing back by crafting legislation intended to reapply some or all of
the ones lost through Trump’s executive orders. In the recent past, sanctions
legislation against Russia has passed Congress by enormous margins, which makes
it seem plausible that lawmakers could form a veto-proof majority in the near
future as well. In other words, it’s not far-fetched to suggest that they could
reestablish sanctions against Trump’s will. kraine, though, is far from the
only bit of Russian behavior Washington has tried to punish in recent years.
No comments
Post a Comment