10 Key Takeaways From Assembly Elections 2017

Everyone's calling the BJP's stupendous results in the five state elections "a Modi win". And with good reason, it appears. AAP's broom swept nothing - it was itself swept aside in the saffron wave - what with its putative battle with the Congress in Punjab turning out to be a dud, and with its utter decimation in Goa. Punjab was the saving grace for the Congress. It may eke out wins in Manipur and Goa but even as of early evening today, those battles are very close to call with the congress and the BJP neck and neck.

1. PM Modi is the 'Man of the Match':-

The fact that's staring political pundits in the face after 5 states' election results today is that the charisma of PM Narendra Modi is not just holding steady, it's thriving. If that was the reason for the BJP's 2014 Lok Sabha win, it was even more the reason for the party's showing today. The BJP won with big majorities in UP and Uttarakhand. In both these states, the BJP didn't name a CM candidate - PM Modi was effectively the BJP face. 

The BJP's win is the most remarkable in UP. It won against the formidable - on paper - SP-Congress alliance and in the face of CM Akhilesh Yadav's apparent popularity. Credit must be given to Modi that he didn't hesitate making the UP election a fight between the PM and the CM- that too in a state election.

2. BJP is now the main pole of Indian politics:-

With today's win in UP and Uttarakhand, the BJP has emerged as the leading political party in India. The BJP and allies have governments in at least 12 states. About 54% of the population in India is under saffron rule. Moreover, 63.6% of the country is under BJP and its allies.

BJP failed to get a clear majority in Goa and Congress emerged as the single largest party with 17 seats. Whereas, Manipur promises to go right down to the wire with Congress and BJP running neck to neck.

3. No Congress-free India - not yet:-

Despite its drubbing in UP - though it was a junior partner to the SP - the Congress is set for a comfortable majority in Punjab and is in close contest with the BJP in Manipur and Goa. Though it got a thrashing in Uttarakhand, the Congress will be more than happy that it successfully fended off the AAP challenge in Punjab. BJP may have more reasons to celebrate today's poll victories, but it's goal of having a Congress-mukta Bharat is still a dream.

4. Big setback for Arvind Kejriwal:-

The assembly elections have dealt a big blow to the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP's national ambitions. Punjab was supposed to be the second state where AAP had a realistic shot at power. However, as the results show, APP was relegated to third place surging ahead even of the Shiromani-BJP alliance which was facing a 10-year-long anti-incumbency. AAP's performance was disastrous in Goa, too. Now, its claim to take on the BJP in PM Modi's home state Gujarat appears to be a tall order.

5. Economic reforms:-

The assembly polls are likely to give a big boost to economic reforms and will help in the swift and smooth rollout of the Goods and Services Tax - the biggest tax reform in the history of Independent India. The BJP's huge victory is likely to whet the appetite of investors and stock markets. The latter may see a bull run, at least in the near term.

6.Rajya Sabha:-

These five assembly elections will completely change party dynamics in the Rajya Sabha next year. The BJP and its allies are set to have a majority by mid-2018 in the Rajya Sabha. A majority in the Rajya Sabha will give the government confidence to go ahead with some contentious economic reforms, like in labour laws.

7. Presidential elections:-

The composition of the newly elected 5 assemblies will impact the Presidential poll in a big way. The BJP's win in all-important UP makes it easier for the party to have a saffron choice elected as the President in July.

8. Demonetisation is good politics:-

The jury is still out on the economic benefits of demonetisaion, but there is no doubt about the politics of the note ban: It is fast changing the political map of India. Since PM Modi announced the scraping of Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes on November 8, the BJP has gone on an election winning spree like never before. It has won local elections in Gujarat and Maharashtra and had increased its tally in Odisha. Now, the BJP's mammoth victory in UP and Uttarakhand is further proof that people have given a thumbs-up for the currency ban.

9. Existential threat for regional satraps:-

The Modi tsunami has completely blown away regional satraps like Mayawati and Ajit Singh in UP. Akhilesh has survived to fight another day but alarming times are on the anvil for Mayawati and the RLD. They need to reinvent their politics to stay relevant in "Modified" India.

10. BJP well placed for next round of assembly polls:-

With its thumping victories in UP and Uttarakhand, the BJP is well-placed for the coming assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. While the BJP is expected to retain Gujarat, PM Modi's home state, it can now make a push to win back Himachal Pradesh from the Congress.